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Integrated Livestock Feed Zones, Crop-Residue Utilisation and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1990–2025: Cointegration, Causality and Error-Correction Evidence

1. Iboro Tom Idim
   Department of Economics, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

Background: Nigeria produces large volumes of crop residues while livestock production remains constrained by feed costs, import dependence and uneven feed-and-fodder infrastructure. Objective: This study examined the long-run and short-run relationships among crop-residue utilisation for livestock feed, livestock output, feed imports, an integration index and Nigeria’s economic growth over 1990–2025. Methods: A quantitative longitudinal ex-post-facto design used annual secondary series compiled from national and international statistical sources. The reported econometric sequence included unit-root testing, Johansen cointegration, Granger-causality analysis, log-linear OLS estimation, an error-correction model and diagnostic/robustness checks. The harmonised estimation sample comprised 35 annual observations after source alignment. Results: The reported Johansen statistics supported multiple long-run relationships; the maximum-eigenvalue criterion indicated two cointegrating equations. In the log-linear GDP model, crop-residue utilisation was positively associated with GDP (B=.158, p=.0053) and livestock output showed a larger positive coefficient (B=.590, p<.001), while feed imports were negatively associated with GDP (B=−.469, p<.001). The integration index was also negative (B=−.444, p<.001), an unexpected result interpreted cautiously as possible transition cost, threshold behaviour or measurement error. The error-correction term was −.457 (p=.0012), implying about 45.7% annual adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Conclusion: The results support crop-residue valorisation and domestic feed development as potentially important components of livestock-sector growth, but they do not justify simple extrapolation from coefficients to national GDP gains. Policy should prioritise feed-and-fodder infrastructure, data quality, crop-production stability and staged evaluation of integration investments.

Keywords: crop residues; livestock feed; economic growth; cointegration; error correction model; import substitution; agricultural value chains; Nigeria

Licence: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

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