CHIATECH JOURNAL · Registered Version of Record

Mathematical Modelling of Residential Electricity Demand for Peak-Load Reduction in Nigeria: A Demand-Response Optimisation Framework Calibrated to Dota Community, Gwagwalada

1. Abdulsalam A. Abdulrahman
   Department of Building Technology, University of Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

Background: Nigeria’s electricity-access challenge is increasingly being addressed through grid reform and distributed renewable systems, but supply-side expansion does not by itself resolve concentrated residential peaks. The author’s prior Dota Community study reported a residential demand of 59.61 kWh/day and 9.62 kW peak, representing 57.43% of the community load. Objective: This study develops a transparent mathematical demand-response model that uses those aggregate values only as calibration anchors and asks a distinct question: how much peak demand can be redistributed when a defined share of household electricity use is time-flexible? Methods: A 24-hour residential archetype was reconstructed to preserve the reported daily energy and peak demand. Linear programming then shifted 10–40% of hourly demand within a bounded time window while conserving total energy. The primary objective minimized the daily maximum demand; secondary penalties represented a normalized time-of-use cost signal and shifting distance. Results: With 30% flexible demand and a ±3-hour shifting window, peak demand fell from 9.62 to 6.73 kW (30.0%), the peak-to-average ratio fell from 3.87 to 2.71, and load factor increased from 25.8% to 36.9%. The normalized cost index decreased by 9.2% with no reduction in daily energy. At 40% flexibility, peak demand fell to 5.77 kW and the cost index decreased by 12.2%. Sensitivity analysis showed that short shifting windows could achieve the same technical peak reduction in this calibrated case, while wider windows increased economic scheduling opportunity. Conclusion: Demand flexibility can complement solar-storage sizing and stochastic renewable-integration strategies in Nigerian households and mini-grids. The reported results are scenario-based technical potential—not measured behavioural response—and implementation depends on metering, controllable loads, consumer safeguards and locally validated tariffs.

Keywords: demand response; residential electricity; mathematical optimisation; load shifting; peak demand; Nigeria; smart metering; mini-grids; Dota Community; energy flexibility

Licence: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

Published by CHIA TECH SOLUTIONS AND RESOURCES LIMITED. ISSN assignment remains pending.